Girona II 1–1 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Girona II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Alex Almansa 72'

Joan Torrents 51'

2/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 22Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Girona II47%

×Draw26%

Pobla Mafumet27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.10

Girona II

1.53

Pobla Mafumet

1.10

Girona II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 76 away

1.72

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

73%

Girona II or Pobla Mafumet

74%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

53%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

24%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

78%

Girona II 2+ goals

45%

Girona II 3+ goals

20%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

67%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

30%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

63%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.53

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Girona II scores more

47%

level

26%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

27%

Girona II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Sergi Quirós← Guzmán

51'

Joan Torrents

59'

Antonino← Sarkodie Dapaah

59'

Iker Almena← A. Yaakobishvili

67'

Aleix Grabulosa← Joan Torrents

67'

Danilo Luís← Hamza Bellari

72'

Alex Almansa

73'

Óscar Coll← D. Camara

73'

Kemo Cisse← Marc Doménech

82'

Lorca← Iván Amoedo

89'

L. Igbineweka← Albert Querol

Girona

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Axel Vizuete

59'▲Antonino←▼Sarkodie Dapaah

59'▲Iker Almena←▼A. Yaakobishvili

73'▲Óscar Coll←▼D. Camara

73'▲Kemo Cisse←▼Marc Doménech

Girona II substitutes

AntoninoAlmenaCollCisse

Manager: Adolfo Baines

46'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Guzmán

67'▲Aleix Grabulosa←▼Joan Torrents

67'▲Danilo Luís←▼Hamza Bellari

82'▲Lorca←▼Iván Amoedo

89'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Albert Querol

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

QuirósGrabulosaLuísLorcaIgbineweka

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Girona II 1–1 Pobla Mafumet

Girona II and Pobla Mafumet drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 26, 2023.

Goals: Joan Torrents (51'), Alex Almansa (72').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.

Girona II vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Girona II 1–1 Pobla Mafumet