Pobla Mafumet 2–0 Europa Fc: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Europa Fc

Arnau Campeny 90+5' (OG)

Guzmán 72'

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Pobla Mafumet36%

×Draw28%

Europa Fc36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchEuropa Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.18

Pobla Mafumet

1.19

Europa Fc

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 42 away

1.36

creates per match

1.55

0.81

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Europa Fc

1.55

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Europa Fc

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Europa Fc →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

64%

Pobla Mafumet or Europa Fc

72%

Draw or Europa Fc

64%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

15%

Europa Fc wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

70%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

33%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

12%

Europa Fc 1+ goals

69%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

33%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

50%

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

36%

level

28%

Europa Fc scores more

36%

Pobla Mafumet at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Guzmán← Gerardo de la Torre

56'

Gerard Nolla← Ricard Vidal

64'

Sergi Quirós← Hamza Bellari

64'

Lorca← Iván Amoedo

70'

Adnane Ghailan← Joel Lasso

72'

Guzmán

74'

Danilo Luís← Joan Torrents

77'

Oriol Molins← Boriko

81'

L. Igbineweka← Guzmán

90+5'

Arnau CampenyOwn goal

Pobla

Europa

🥅

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Manager: Adolfo Baines

46'▲Guzmán←▼Gerardo de la Torre

64'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Hamza Bellari

64'▲Lorca←▼Iván Amoedo

74'▲Danilo Luís←▼Joan Torrents

81'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Guzmán

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GuzmánQuirósLorcaLuísIgbineweka

Manager: Eric Sánchez

56'▲Gerard Nolla←▼Ricard Vidal

70'▲Adnane Ghailan←▼Joel Lasso

77'▲Oriol Molins←▼Boriko

Europa Fc substitutes

NollaGhailanMolins