Europa Fc 2–1 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Europa Fc

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Alex Cano 57'

Guillem Castell 26'

David Montagut 90+1'

10/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Europa Fc55%

×Draw24%

Pobla Mafumet21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa FcExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.92

Europa Fc

1.68

Pobla Mafumet

0.92

Europa Fc creates 83% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 76 away

2.02

creates per match

1.07

0.76

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Europa Fc

2.02

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Europa Fc

0.76

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw

79%

Europa Fc or Pobla Mafumet

76%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

45%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+

30%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

81%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

50%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

24%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

60%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

23%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

73%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.68

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Europa Fc scores more

55%

level

24%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

21%

Europa Fc at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Guillem Castell

46'

Guzmán← Marc Aspa

46'

Eduardo Taboada← Joan Torrents

57'

Arnau Vilamitjana← Pau López

57'

Carlos Portero← Víctor Aliaga

57'

Alex Cano

68'

Joel Arimany← Adrià Gené

76'

Oriol Molins← Kilian Villaverde

76'

Alberto González← Nono

76'

Sergi Quirós← Sergio Bono

83'

Lorca← Iván Amoedo

83'

David Montagut← B. Hallebeek

90+1'

David Montagut

Europa

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ignasi Senabre

57'▲Arnau Vilamitjana←▼Pau López

57'▲Carlos Portero←▼Víctor Aliaga

68'▲Joel Arimany←▼Adrià Gené

76'▲Oriol Molins←▼Kilian Villaverde

76'▲Alberto González←▼Nono

Europa Fc substitutes

VilamitjanaPorteroArimanyMolinsGonzález

Manager: Adolfo Baines

46'▲Guzmán←▼Marc Aspa

46'▲Eduardo Taboada←▼Joan Torrents

76'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Sergio Bono

83'▲Lorca←▼Iván Amoedo

83'▲David Montagut←▼B. Hallebeek

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GuzmánTaboadaQuirósLorcaMontagut