Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Pobla Mafumet

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cerdanyola del Vallès

12/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pobla Mafumet47%

×Draw27%

Cerdanyola del Vallès26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchCerdanyola del Vallès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.95

Pobla Mafumet

1.40

Cerdanyola del Vallès

0.95

Pobla Mafumet creates 47% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 77 away

1.36

creates per match

1.08

0.81

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.08

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

74%

Pobla Mafumet or Cerdanyola del Vallès

73%

Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès

53%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

23%

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

75%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

41%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

17%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

61%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

25%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

65%

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

47%

level

27%

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

26%

Pobla Mafumet at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Víctor Valverde← Daniel García

46'

Hamza Bellari← Albert Querol

63'

Cristian Ubon← Hicham Benamar

63'

Pau Caresia← Alex Pauner

68'

Sergi Quirós← Monne

80'

Danilo Luís← Joan Torrents

84'

Lorca← Guzmán

Pobla

Cerdanyola

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Adolfo Baines

46'▲Víctor Valverde←▼Daniel García

46'▲Hamza Bellari←▼Albert Querol

68'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Monne

80'▲Danilo Luís←▼Joan Torrents

84'▲Lorca←▼Guzmán

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

ValverdeBellariQuirósLuísLorca

Manager: Borja López

63'▲Cristian Ubon←▼Hicham Benamar

63'▲Pau Caresia←▼Alex Pauner

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

UbonCaresia

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Pobla Mafumet and Cerdanyola del Vallès drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.

Pobla Mafumet vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès