Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–2 Pobla Mafumet

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pobla Mafumet

Sergi Cadena 48'

Daniel García 68'

L. Igbineweka 30'

4/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès39%

×Draw27%

Pobla Mafumet35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerdanyola del VallèsExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.33

Pobla Mafumet

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

1.31

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.31

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.43

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw

65%

Cerdanyola del Vallès or Pobla Mafumet

73%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

61%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

17%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

74%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

38%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

15%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

71%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

36%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

53%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

39%

level

27%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

35%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

L. Igbineweka

48'

Sergi Cadena

61'

Pol Cuatrecases← Sergio Paz

64'

Guzmán← L. Igbineweka

68'

Daniel García

69'

Pol Vila← Dani Lucea

81'

Didac← Pau Caresia

83'

I. Diarra← Danilo Luís

83'

Aleix Grabulosa← Sergi Quirós

83'

Lorca← Manuel Pavon

Cerdanyola

Pobla

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Borja López

61'▲Pol Cuatrecases←▼Sergio Paz

69'▲Pol Vila←▼Dani Lucea

81'▲Didac←▼Pau Caresia

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

CuatrecasesVilaDidac

Manager: Adolfo Baines

64'▲Guzmán←▼L. Igbineweka

83'▲I. Diarra←▼Danilo Luís

83'▲Aleix Grabulosa←▼Sergi Quirós

83'▲Lorca←▼Manuel Pavon

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GuzmánDiarraGrabulosaLorca

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–2 Pobla Mafumet

Pobla Mafumet beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 16, 2023.

Goals: L. Igbineweka (30'), Sergi Cadena (48'), Daniel García (68').

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Energia in Barcelona.

Cerdanyola del Vallès vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–2 Pobla Mafumet