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Plzen vs Opava — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Opava
Opava
T. Chorý 68'
D. Limberský 46'
J. Kovařík 36'
A. Čermák 14'
8/25/2019Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 7Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Plzen71%
×Draw18%
Opava11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.23
Opava
0.73

Plzen creates 205% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 33 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.26
Opava
0.58

allows per match

Plzen
0.89
Opava
2.21

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Opava+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Opava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
89%
Plzen or Opava
82%
Draw or Opava
29%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
47%
Opava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
89%
Plzen 2+ goals
65%
Plzen 3+ goals
38%
Opava 1+ goals
52%
Opava 2+ goals
17%
Opava 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
87%
Opava (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 123 matches

Opava away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + Opava defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

Opava attack 0.58 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Plzen scores more
71%
level
18%
Opava scores more
11%

Plzen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Kovařík← J. Kaymba
14'
A. Čermák
18'
Vaclav Jurecka
25'
Matej Helebrand
33'
T. Chorý← M. Krmenčík
36'
J. Kovařík
37'
Karol Mondek
46'
P. Zapalač← J. Svozil
46'
D. Limberský
56'
R. Dedic← F. Souček
59'
Aleš Čermák
64'
J. Řezníček← M. Helebrand
68'
T. Chorý
82'
D. Janosek← A. Čermák

Statistics

PlzenOpava
Overview
8Corners4
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Czech Liga: Plzen 4–0 Opava

Plzen beat Opava 4-0 in Czech Liga on August 25, 2019.

Goals: A. Čermák (14'), J. Kovařík (36'), D. Limberský (46'), T. Chorý (68').

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.