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Opava vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Opava
Opava
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
2/16/2020Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 21Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Opava22%
×Draw26%
Plzen51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava
0.89
Plzen
1.50

Plzen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 116 away

creates per match

Opava
0.69
Plzen
1.49

allows per match

Opava
1.50
Plzen
1.09

finishing

Opava+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Opava or draw
49%
Opava or Plzen
74%
Draw or Plzen
78%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+
7%
Plzen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals
59%
Opava 2+ goals
22%
Opava 3+ goals
6%
Plzen 1+ goals
78%
Plzen 2+ goals
44%
Plzen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)
30%
Plzen (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 0.69 + Plzen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Plzen attack 1.49 + Opava defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Opava scores more
22%
level
26%
Plzen scores more
51%

Plzen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opava 0 – 3 Plzen

Plzen beat Opava 3-0 in Czech Liga on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion v Městských sadech in Opava.