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Plzen vs Inter — UEFA Champions League 2018

Plzen
Plzen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
9/13/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group C - 2Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Plzen33%
×Draw24%
Inter42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.37
Inter
1.57

Inter creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Plzen
1.62
Inter
1.38

allows per match

Plzen
1.77
Inter
1.12

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
58%
Plzen or Inter
76%
Draw or Inter
67%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
15%
Inter wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
75%
Plzen 2+ goals
40%
Plzen 3+ goals
16%
Inter 1+ goals
79%
Inter 2+ goals
46%
Inter 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
44%
Inter (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Inter away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.62 + Inter defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Inter attack 1.38 + Plzen defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plzen scores more
33%
level
24%
Inter scores more
42%

Inter at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Plzen 0–2 Inter

Inter beat Plzen 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on September 13, 2022.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.