Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter vs Plzen — UEFA Champions League 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
10/26/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group C - 5Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter58%
×Draw22%
Plzen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.94
Plzen
1.06

Inter creates 83% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Inter
1.33
Plzen
1.08

allows per match

Inter
1.04
Plzen
2.54

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Inter or draw
80%
Inter or Plzen
78%
Draw or Plzen
42%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
34%
Plzen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
86%
Inter 2+ goals
58%
Inter 3+ goals
30%
Plzen 1+ goals
65%
Plzen 2+ goals
29%
Plzen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
74%
Plzen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 1.33 + Plzen defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.94

Plzen attack 1.08 + Inter defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inter scores more
58%
level
22%
Plzen scores more
20%

Inter at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Inter 4–0 Plzen

Inter beat Plzen 4-0 in UEFA Champions League on October 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.