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Plzen vs FK Tobol Kostanay — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Plzen
Plzen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
8/31/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsDoosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Plzen74%
×Draw19%
FK Tobol Kostanay6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.89
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.37

Plzen creates 411% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Plzen
1.78
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.63

allows per match

Plzen
0.11
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.00

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
94%
Plzen or FK Tobol Kostanay
81%
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
26%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
47%
FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
85%
Plzen 2+ goals
56%
Plzen 3+ goals
29%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
31%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
5%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
92%
FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.78 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 0.63 + Plzen defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Plzen scores more
74%
level
19%
FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
6%

Plzen at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Plzen 3–0 FK Tobol Kostanay

Plzen beat FK Tobol Kostanay 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 31, 2023.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.