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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Plzen — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
8/24/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsOrtalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay28%
×Draw28%
Plzen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
0.95
Plzen
1.28

Plzen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Plzen
1.56

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Plzen
0.89

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
56%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Plzen
72%
Draw or Plzen
72%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
10%
Plzen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
61%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
25%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
7%
Plzen 1+ goals
72%
Plzen 2+ goals
37%
Plzen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
39%
Plzen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.00 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Plzen attack 1.56 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
28%
level
28%
Plzen scores more
44%

Plzen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Plzen

Plzen beat FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 24, 2023.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Kostanay.