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Plzen vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
Preview
14:00
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
3/13/2027Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 25Doosan Arena
Big match
59%
Plzen
model favours
59%20%21%

Both teams score in 83% of FK Jablonec’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen59%
×Draw20%
FK Jablonec21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.20
FK Jablonec
1.25

Plzen creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
FK Jablonec
1.31

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
FK Jablonec
2.17

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
79%
Plzen or FK Jablonec
80%
Draw or FK Jablonec
41%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
36%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
89%
Plzen 2+ goals
64%
Plzen 3+ goals
37%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
71%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
36%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
74%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.20

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plzen scores more
59%
level
20%
FK Jablonec scores more
21%

Plzen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plzen have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Plzen 3 vs FK Jablonec 4
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plzen
Possession-dominant
FK Jablonec
Balanced
53%Possession49%
77%Pass accuracy76%
11.2Shots9.7
1.81xGBiggest gap1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlzenFK Jablonec

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 70%
5–03–31–14–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plzen
WLDDW
Jablonec
WLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plzen host FK Jablonec

March 13, 2027: Plzen take on FK Jablonec in Czech Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plzen host FK Jablonec at Doosan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.