Plzen 3–2 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Plzen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

FK Jablonec

L. Kalvach 80'

M. Vydra 75'

P. Šulc 70' (pen)

S. Nebyla 45+2' (pen)

A. Alégué 2'

12/1/2024

Czech Liga · Round 17Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen59%

×Draw20%

FK Jablonec21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.25

Plzen

2.20

FK Jablonec

1.25

Plzen creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.22

creates per match

1.31

1.20

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Plzen

2.22

FK Jablonec

1.31

allows per match

Plzen

1.20

FK Jablonec

2.17

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more

FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

79%

Plzen or FK Jablonec

80%

Draw or FK Jablonec

41%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

36%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

89%

Plzen 2+ goals

64%

Plzen 3+ goals

37%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

71%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

36%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

74%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.20

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plzen scores more

59%

level

20%

FK Jablonec scores more

21%

Plzen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Vydra

Plzen · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

15'

17'

29'

37'

45+4'

45+2'

S. NebylaPenalty

46'

J. Panoš← L. Červ

46'

D. Vašulín← E. Jirka

46'

J. Kopic← C. Souaré

65'

T. Schánělec← D. Puškáč

65'

D. Štěpánek← H. Hurtado

68'

Martin Cedidla

70'

P. ŠulcPenalty

75'

B. Kanakimana← A. Alégué

75'

77'

80'

90+3'

90'

J. Suchan← V. Tchanturishvili

90'

J. Chramosta← D. Hollý

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlzenFK

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots9

2Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target4

8Off Target4

1Blocked1

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

443Total Passes238

374Accurate Passes158

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Plzen vs FK Jablonec

Plzen beat FK Jablonec 3-2 in Czech Liga on December 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Alégué (2'), S. Nebyla (45+2' pen), P. Šulc (70' pen), M. Vydra (75'), L. Kalvach (80').

Plzen controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.

Plzen vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Plzen vs FK Jablonec