Plzen 4–1 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Plzen

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

FK Jablonec

P. Šulc 67', 19'

S. Dweh 45+1'

R. Durosinmi 3'

J. Chramosta 90+3' (pen)

5/24/2025

Czech Liga · Championship Round - 5Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen59%

×Draw20%

FK Jablonec21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.25

Plzen

2.20

FK Jablonec

1.25

Plzen creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.22

creates per match

1.31

1.20

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Plzen

2.22

FK Jablonec

1.31

allows per match

Plzen

1.20

FK Jablonec

2.17

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more

FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

79%

Plzen or FK Jablonec

80%

Draw or FK Jablonec

41%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

36%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

89%

Plzen 2+ goals

64%

Plzen 3+ goals

37%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

71%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

36%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

74%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.20

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plzen scores more

59%

level

20%

FK Jablonec scores more

21%

Plzen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

P. Šulc

Plzen · F

8.9

Match Events

3'

17'

19'

38'

45+1'

46'

46'

J. Chramosta← A. Alégué

64'

D. Vašulín← R. Durosinmi

66'

M. Polidar← J. Martinec

66'

D. Hollý← D. Puškáč

67'

P. Šulc↳ A. Memić

69'

M. Valenta← L. Kalvach

77'

Vakhtang Chanturishvili

82'

83'

83'

86'

90+2'

90+2'

90+3'

J. ChramostaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlzenFK

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots14

2.49Expected Goals (xG)1.77

3Corners1

13Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots14

8On Target4

5Off Target9

1Blocked1

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

285Total Passes444

223Accurate Passes373

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Czech Liga: Plzen 4–1 FK Jablonec

Plzen beat FK Jablonec 4-1 in Czech Liga on May 24, 2025.

Goals: R. Durosinmi (3'), P. Šulc (19', 67'), S. Dweh (45+1'), J. Chramosta (90+3' pen).

FK Jablonec controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.

Plzen vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Plzen 4–1 FK Jablonec