Plzen 3–2 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Plzen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FK Jablonec

9/16/2019

Czech Liga · Round 9Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Plzen56%

×Draw21%

FK Jablonec23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.33

Plzen

2.16

FK Jablonec

1.33

Plzen creates 62% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.23

creates per match

1.33

1.34

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Plzen

2.23

FK Jablonec

1.33

allows per match

Plzen

1.34

FK Jablonec

2.09

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.27scores more

FK Jablonec+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

77%

Plzen or FK Jablonec

79%

Draw or FK Jablonec

44%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

34%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

88%

Plzen 2+ goals

63%

Plzen 3+ goals

36%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

74%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

38%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

71%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.23 + FK Jablonec defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.16

FK Jablonec attack 1.33 + Plzen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Plzen scores more

56%

level

21%

FK Jablonec scores more

23%

Plzen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff