Plzen 3–3 FC Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

FC Copenhagen

Matěj Vydra 69'

Christophe Kabongo 16'

Jiri Panos 13'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson 66', 4'

7/12/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kufstein-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Plzen53%

×Draw19%

FC Copenhagen28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchFC Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.85

Plzen

2.58

FC Copenhagen

1.85

Plzen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.83

1.88

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Plzen

2.50

FC Copenhagen

1.83

allows per match

Plzen

1.88

FC Copenhagen

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FC Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

72%

Plzen or FC Copenhagen

81%

Draw or FC Copenhagen

47%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

34%

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

92%

Plzen 2+ goals

72%

Plzen 3+ goals

47%

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

84%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

55%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

66%

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.50 + FC Copenhagen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

FC Copenhagen attack 1.83 + Plzen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plzen scores more

53%

level

19%

FC Copenhagen scores more

28%

Plzen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson

13'

Jiri Panos

16'

Christophe Kabongo

46'

Matěj Vydra← Christophe Kabongo

55'

Lukáš Kalvach

59'

Elias Jelert← Lukas Lerager

66'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson

69'

Matěj Vydra

78'

Munashe Garananga← Munashe Garananga

78'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson← Orri Steinn Óskarsson

Plzen3-4-2-1

FC4-3-3

10

Elyounous

11

Larsson

18

⚽2

▼

33

8

9

24

4

▼

2

18

1

16

40

21

3

10

23

6

22

20

Panos

51

Vasulin

37

⚽

▼

Kabongo

Manager: M. Koubek

46'▲Matěj Vydra←▼Christophe Kabongo

Plzen substitutes

11Vydra13Tvrdoň1Wiegele24Havel4Sene5Míka18Mosquera31Šulc24Sloncik25Sojka34Deml33Jirka27Bello35Ricardinho

Manager: J. Neestrup

59'▲Elias Jelert←▼Lukas Lerager

78'▲—←▼Munashe Garananga

78'▲—←▼Orri Steinn Óskarsson

FC Copenhagen substitutes

19Jelert37Olsson45Chiakha31Rúnarsson6Sørensen47Froholdt58Bidstrup42Jørgensen12Lerager38Hojer57Andrew7Claesson

Friendlies Clubs: Plzen 3–3 FC Copenhagen

Plzen and FC Copenhagen drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2024.

Goals: Orri Steinn Óskarsson (4', 66'), Jiri Panos (13'), Christophe Kabongo (16'), Matěj Vydra (69').

The match was played at Kufstein-Arena in Kufstein.

Plzen vs FC Copenhagen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Plzen 3–3 FC Copenhagen