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Plzen vs FC Copenhagen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Plzen
Plzen
FT
3 – 2
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
J. Kliment 110'
T. Chory 77'
J. Kopic 8'
O. S. Oskarsson 135'
D. Goncalves 18'
7/14/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Kufstein-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Plzen53%
×Draw19%
FC Copenhagen28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.58
FC Copenhagen
1.85

Plzen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.50
FC Copenhagen
1.83

allows per match

Plzen
1.88
FC Copenhagen
2.67

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
72%
Plzen or FC Copenhagen
81%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
47%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
34%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
92%
Plzen 2+ goals
72%
Plzen 3+ goals
47%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
84%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
55%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
66%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.50 + FC Copenhagen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

FC Copenhagen attack 1.83 + Plzen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plzen scores more
53%
level
19%
FC Copenhagen scores more
28%

Plzen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. Kopic
18'
D. Goncalves
42'
L. Kalvach
46'
R. Reznik← Cadu
65'
T. Chory← T. Chory
69'
E. Jirka← J. Kliment
69'
J. Kopic← M. Vydra
69'
A. Vlkanova← J. Mosquera
69'
L. Kalvach← R. Kvet
69'
I. Traore← P. Bucha
69'
J. Sykora← P. Sulc
69'
V. Jemelka← R. Hranac
69'
L. Hejda← S. Dweh
69'
J. Stanek← M. Jedlicka
77'
T. Chory
91'
Cadu← L. Holik
106'
R. Hranac←
110'
J. Kliment
135'
O. S. Oskarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Plzen 3–2 FC Copenhagen

Plzen beat FC Copenhagen 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Kopic (8'), D. Goncalves (18'), T. Chory (77'), J. Kliment (110'), O. S. Oskarsson (135').

The match was played at Kufstein-Arena in Kufstein.