Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plzen vs Dukla Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
4/19/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 30Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plzen54%
×Draw24%
Dukla Praha22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.74
Dukla Praha
1.03

Plzen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Dukla Praha
0.87

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Dukla Praha
1.25

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Dukla Praha-0.70scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Dukla Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
78%
Plzen or Dukla Praha
76%
Draw or Dukla Praha
46%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
30%
Dukla Praha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
82%
Plzen 2+ goals
52%
Plzen 3+ goals
25%
Dukla Praha 1+ goals
64%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
28%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
71%
Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Dukla Praha defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dukla Praha attack 0.87 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Plzen scores more
54%
level
24%
Dukla Praha scores more
22%

Plzen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plzen vs Dukla Praha

Plzen beat Dukla Praha 4-2 in Czech Liga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.