Dukla Praha 2–0 Plzen: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Dukla Praha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Plzen

8/16/2025

Czech Liga · Round 5Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dukla Praha40%

×Draw25%

Plzen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla PrahaExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.39

Dukla Praha

1.51

Plzen

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.88

creates per match

1.41

1.37

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Dukla Praha

0.88

Plzen

1.41

allows per match

Dukla Praha

1.37

Plzen

2.14

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.12scores more

Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw

65%

Dukla Praha or Plzen

75%

Draw or Plzen

60%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

20%

Plzen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

78%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

44%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

19%

Plzen 1+ goals

75%

Plzen 2+ goals

40%

Plzen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

54%

Plzen (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 0.88 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Plzen attack 1.41 + Dukla Praha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dukla Praha scores more

40%

level

25%

Plzen scores more

35%

Dukla Praha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff