Plzen 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb

2/14/2019

UEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsDoosan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Plzen49%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Zagreb23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.83

Plzen

1.36

Dinamo Zagreb

0.83

Plzen creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

0.33

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Plzen

1.50

Dinamo Zagreb

1.33

allows per match

Plzen

0.33

Dinamo Zagreb

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

77%

Plzen or Dinamo Zagreb

72%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb

51%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

74%

Plzen 2+ goals

39%

Plzen 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

68%

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.50 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.33 + Plzen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Plzen scores more

49%

level

28%

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

23%

Plzen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff