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Dinamo Zagreb vs Plzen — UEFA Europa League 2018

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
2/21/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsMaksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb50%
×Draw28%
Plzen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb
1.36
Plzen
0.81

Dinamo Zagreb creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb
1.48
Plzen
0.60

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb
1.03
Plzen
1.25

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.32scores more
Plzen+0.60scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw
78%
Dinamo Zagreb or Plzen
72%
Draw or Plzen
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
24%
Plzen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
16%
Plzen 1+ goals
56%
Plzen 2+ goals
19%
Plzen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
69%
Plzen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.03 · 5 matches

Plzen away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.48 + Plzen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Plzen attack 0.60 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more
50%
level
28%
Plzen scores more
22%

Dinamo Zagreb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Plzen

Dinamo Zagreb beat Plzen 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on February 21, 2019.

The match was played at Maksimir in Zagreb.