Plzen 2–1 České Budějovice: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

České Budějovice

2/12/2023

Czech Liga · Round 19Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Plzen65%

×Draw20%

České Budějovice15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.94

Plzen

2.17

České Budějovice

0.94

Plzen creates 131% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 102 away

2.26

creates per match

0.98

0.89

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Plzen

2.26

České Budějovice

0.98

allows per match

Plzen

0.89

České Budějovice

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

85%

Plzen or České Budějovice

80%

Draw or České Budějovice

35%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

42%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

89%

Plzen 2+ goals

64%

Plzen 3+ goals

36%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

61%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

24%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

81%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 125 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Plzen scores more

65%

level

20%

České Budějovice scores more

15%

Plzen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff