Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

České Budějovice vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Plzen
Plzen
8/13/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 4Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice29%
×Draw26%
Plzen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.15
Plzen
1.50

Plzen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 119 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.20
Plzen
1.48

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.53
Plzen
1.10

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
55%
České Budějovice or Plzen
74%
Draw or Plzen
71%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
12%
Plzen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
68%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
32%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
11%
Plzen 1+ goals
78%
Plzen 2+ goals
44%
Plzen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
39%
Plzen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Plzen attack 1.48 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

České Budějovice scores more
29%
level
26%
Plzen scores more
45%

Plzen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice vs Plzen

Plzen beat České Budějovice 5-2 in Czech Liga on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.