Plzen 2–1 České Budějovice: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

České Budějovice

Š. Falta 56'

L. Kalvach 29'

P. Novák 45+1'

4/4/2021

Czech Liga · Round 25Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Plzen66%

×Draw19%

České Budějovice15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.91

Plzen

2.17

České Budějovice

0.91

Plzen creates 138% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 99 away

2.26

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Plzen

2.26

České Budějovice

0.92

allows per match

Plzen

0.89

České Budějovice

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

85%

Plzen or České Budějovice

81%

Draw or České Budějovice

34%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

42%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

89%

Plzen 2+ goals

64%

Plzen 3+ goals

36%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

60%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

23%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

82%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 123 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.08 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + České Budějovice defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.17

České Budějovice attack 0.92 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Plzen scores more

66%

level

19%

České Budějovice scores more

15%

Plzen at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

32'

45+1'

56'

62'

L. Jánošík← F. Havelka

62'

K. Mészáros← M. Mršič

64'

P. Šulc← A. Čermák

70'

J. Vais← P. Brandner

71'

Z. Ondrášek← J. Beauguel

71'

O. Mihálik← D. Ba Loua

77'

Jonáš Vais

Shots

Statistics

PlzenČeské

Overview

12Total Shots5

14Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots5

7On Target2

5Off Target3

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0