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Plzen vs Bayern Munich — UEFA Champions League 2026

Plzen
Plzen
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich
10/12/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group C - 4Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Plzen23%
×Draw20%
Bayern Munich57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.34
Bayern Munich
2.23

Bayern Munich creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 36 away

creates per match

Plzen
1.62
Bayern Munich
2.69

allows per match

Plzen
1.77
Bayern Munich
1.06

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Bayern Munich+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Bayern Munich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
43%
Plzen or Bayern Munich
80%
Draw or Bayern Munich
77%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
9%
Bayern Munich wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
74%
Plzen 2+ goals
39%
Plzen 3+ goals
15%
Bayern Munich 1+ goals
89%
Bayern Munich 2+ goals
65%
Bayern Munich 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
28%
Bayern Munich (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Bayern Munich away — creates 2.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.62 + Bayern Munich defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bayern Munich attack 2.69 + Plzen defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plzen scores more
23%
level
20%
Bayern Munich scores more
57%

Bayern Munich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Plzen 2–4 Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich beat Plzen 4-2 in UEFA Champions League on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.