Bayern Munich 5–0 Plzen: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Plzen

10/4/2022

UEFA Champions League · Group C - 3Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayern Munich74%

×Draw15%

Plzen11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern MunichExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.94

Bayern Munich

2.70

Plzen

0.94

Bayern Munich creates 187% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

2.85

creates per match

1.08

0.79

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Bayern Munich

2.85

Plzen

1.08

allows per match

Bayern Munich

0.79

Plzen

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich+0.00on par

Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bayern Munich or draw

89%

Bayern Munich or Plzen

85%

Draw or Plzen

26%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich wins by 2+

53%

Plzen wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bayern Munich 1+ goals

93%

Bayern Munich 2+ goals

75%

Bayern Munich 3+ goals

50%

Plzen 1+ goals

61%

Plzen 2+ goals

24%

Plzen 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich (draw refunded)

87%

Plzen (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich attack 2.85 + Plzen defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

Plzen attack 1.08 + Bayern Munich defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bayern Munich scores more

74%

level

15%

Plzen scores more

11%

Bayern Munich at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff