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Plymouth vs Wigan — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
14:00
Wigan
Wigan
5/1/2027League OneLeague One · Round 45Home Park
Big match
57%
Plymouth
model favours
57%21%22%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Plymouth57%
×Draw21%
Wigan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.04
Wigan
1.18

Plymouth creates 73% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.38
Wigan
1.07

allows per match

Plymouth
1.28
Wigan
1.70

finishing

Plymouth-0.60scores less
Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
78%
Plymouth or Wigan
79%
Draw or Wigan
43%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
34%
Wigan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
87%
Plymouth 2+ goals
60%
Plymouth 3+ goals
33%
Wigan 1+ goals
69%
Wigan 2+ goals
33%
Wigan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
72%
Wigan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.28 · 9 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.38 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.04

Wigan attack 1.07 + Plymouth defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plymouth scores more
57%
level
21%
Wigan scores more
22%

Plymouth at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Wigan
Balanced
49%Possession48%
68%Pass accuracy74%
13.3Shots10.5
2.16xGBiggest gap1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthWigan

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Plymouth
3
Draws
2
Wigan
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 67%
3–01–11–11–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Wigan
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth vs Wigan — Match Preview

Plymouth face Wigan on May 1, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plymouth host Wigan at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.