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Plymouth vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
19:45
Stevenage
Stevenage
1/19/2027League OneLeague One · Round 26Home Park
59%
Plymouth
model favours
59%21%21%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth59%
×Draw21%
Stevenage21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.08
Stevenage
1.15

Plymouth creates 81% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.38
Stevenage
1.01

allows per match

Plymouth
1.28
Stevenage
1.77

finishing

Plymouth-0.60scores less
Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
79%
Plymouth or Stevenage
79%
Draw or Stevenage
41%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
36%
Stevenage wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
87%
Plymouth 2+ goals
61%
Plymouth 3+ goals
34%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
32%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
74%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.28 · 9 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.38 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.08

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Plymouth defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plymouth scores more
59%
level
21%
Stevenage scores more
21%

Plymouth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Style contrast — Plymouth play Attack-heavy, Stevenage Direct / counter-attacking
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession44%
68%Pass accuracy64%
13.5Shots10.5
2.16xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthStevenage

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Plymouth
1
Draws
0
Stevenage
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 75%
1–01–12–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Stevenage
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth vs Stevenage — Match Preview

Plymouth face Stevenage on January 19, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plymouth host Stevenage at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.