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Plymouth vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
15:00
Peterborough
Peterborough
11/21/2026League OneLeague One · Round 16Home Park
Big match
56%
Plymouth
model favours
56%21%24%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth56%
×Draw21%
Peterborough24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.15
Peterborough
1.34

Plymouth creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.51
Peterborough
1.21

allows per match

Plymouth
1.47
Peterborough
1.79

finishing

Plymouth-0.80scores less
Peterborough-0.03on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
76%
Plymouth or Peterborough
79%
Draw or Peterborough
44%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
34%
Peterborough wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
88%
Plymouth 2+ goals
63%
Plymouth 3+ goals
36%
Peterborough 1+ goals
74%
Peterborough 2+ goals
39%
Peterborough 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
70%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.51 + Peterborough defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.15

Peterborough attack 1.21 + Plymouth defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Plymouth scores more
56%
level
21%
Peterborough scores more
24%

Plymouth at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 13 games running
  • Plymouth have won 3 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 27% of matches
  • Plymouth sit 8, Peterborough 18 in the table
  • 73% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Plymouth’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Peterborough
Balanced
46%Possession56%
65%Pass accuracy79%
13.7Shots12.4
2.25xGBiggest gap1.72
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthPeterborough

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Peterborough
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 20%
1–00–12–52–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWDW
Peterborough
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth vs Peterborough — Match Preview

Plymouth face Peterborough on November 21, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plymouth host Peterborough at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.