Peterborough 0–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

A. Pepple 23'

1/17/2026

League One · Round 27Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Peterborough32%

×Draw22%

Plymouth45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.90

Peterborough

1.58

Plymouth

1.90

Plymouth creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

2.10

creates per match

2.17

1.62

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Peterborough

2.10

Plymouth

2.17

allows per match

Peterborough

1.62

Plymouth

1.07

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.67scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.08on par

Plymouth-0.67scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

55%

Peterborough or Plymouth

78%

Draw or Plymouth

68%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

Plymouth wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

79%

Peterborough 2+ goals

47%

Peterborough 3+ goals

21%

Plymouth 1+ goals

85%

Plymouth 2+ goals

56%

Plymouth 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

42%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.10 + Plymouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Plymouth attack 2.17 + Peterborough defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peterborough scores more

32%

level

22%

Plymouth scores more

45%

Plymouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Collins

Peterborough · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Thomas O'Connor

6'

Malachi Boateng

23'

A. Pepple↳ L. Tolaj

25'

G. Nevett← T. O'Connor

44'

51'

55'

56'

58'

60'

O. Aderoju← J. Morgan

67'

Archie Collins

77'

D. Frith← B. Khela

77'

C. Hayes← K. Lisbie

77'

D. O'Brien-Brady← H. Leonard

85'

89'

89'

90+5'

90'

90+3'

B. Wiredu← M. Sorinola

90+9'

K. Szucs← L. Tolaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughPlymouth

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots22

0.25Expected Goals (xG)3.20

8Corners10

13Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots22

2On Target3

5Off Target12

1Blocked7

3Inside Box19

5Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

430Total Passes177

349Accurate Passes101

81%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls21

7Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Plymouth

Plymouth beat Peterborough 1-0 in League One on January 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Pepple (23').

Peterborough controlled possession (68%) and registered 8 shots to 22.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Plymouth — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Plymouth