Plymouth 2–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Peterborough

R. Hardie 65' (pen)

F. Azaz 30'

8/13/2022

League One · Round 3Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth57%

×Draw20%

Peterborough23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.35

Plymouth

2.22

Peterborough

1.35

Plymouth creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

2.51

creates per match

1.24

1.47

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Plymouth

2.51

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Plymouth

1.47

Peterborough

1.94

-0.80scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Plymouth-0.80scores less

Peterborough-0.07on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

77%

Plymouth or Peterborough

80%

Draw or Peterborough

43%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

35%

Peterborough wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

89%

Plymouth 2+ goals

65%

Plymouth 3+ goals

38%

Peterborough 1+ goals

74%

Peterborough 2+ goals

39%

Peterborough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

71%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.51 + Peterborough defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.22

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Plymouth defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plymouth scores more

57%

level

20%

Peterborough scores more

23%

Plymouth at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Cooper

Plymouth · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

F. Azaz↳ D. Mayor

46'

J. Randall← J. Taylor

46'

N. Thompson← J. Ward

46'

J. Taylor← R. Edwards

46'

R. Jones← J. Marriott

48'

Ben Thompson

59'

N. Ennis← D. Mayor

65'

R. HardiePenalty

70'

M. Butcher← A. Randell

70'

J. Fuchs← B. Thompson

78'

Josh Knight

82'

James Wilson

83'

M. Whittaker← R. Hardie

83'

N. Lonwijk← B. Mumba

84'

Finn Azaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthPeterborough

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots5

5Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots5

8On Target3

6Off Target1

4Blocked1

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

418Total Passes353

307Accurate Passes241

73%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0