Plymouth 0–3 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

J. Taylor 84'

J. Clarke-Harris 63'

S. Szmodics 46'

2/23/2021

League One · Round 31Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth57%

×Draw21%

Peterborough22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.25

Plymouth

2.10

Peterborough

1.25

Plymouth creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.28

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Peterborough

1.92

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

78%

Plymouth or Peterborough

79%

Draw or Peterborough

43%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

34%

Peterborough wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

88%

Plymouth 2+ goals

62%

Plymouth 3+ goals

35%

Peterborough 1+ goals

71%

Peterborough 2+ goals

36%

Peterborough 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

72%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.10

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plymouth scores more

57%

level

21%

Peterborough scores more

22%

Plymouth at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Ward

Peterborough · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

Mark Beevers

46'

S. Szmodics↳ J. Ward

63'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ J. Ward

71'

R. Hardie← C. Grant

74'

S. Woods← J. Opoku

74'

E. Hamilton← R. Brown

81'

A. Lewis← K. Watts

81'

J. Edwards← Panutche Camará

81'

B. Reeves← B. Moore

84'

J. Taylor↳ S. Dembélé

87'

M. Eisa← J. Clarke-Harris

88'

N. Mason← N. Thompson

88'

H. Burrows← S. Dembélé

89'

Ryan Hardie

90+1'

R. Jade-Jones← J. Ward

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthPeterborough

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots13

2Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target6

2Off Target5

1Blocked2

5Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

428Total Passes430

347Accurate Passes343

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

League One: Plymouth 0–3 Peterborough

Peterborough beat Plymouth 3-0 in League One on February 23, 2021.

Goals: S. Szmodics (46'), J. Clarke-Harris (63'), J. Taylor (84').

Plymouth controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.

Plymouth vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Plymouth 0–3 Peterborough