Plymouth 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Plymouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Norwich

R. Hardie 29', 24'

J. Sargent 46'

4/5/2025

Championship · Round 40Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Plymouth39%

×Draw25%

Norwich35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.35

Plymouth

1.44

Norwich

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 59 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

1.51

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Plymouth

1.42

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Plymouth

1.51

Norwich

1.45

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth+0.62scores more

Norwich+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

65%

Plymouth or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

61%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

19%

Norwich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

76%

Plymouth 2+ goals

42%

Plymouth 3+ goals

18%

Norwich 1+ goals

74%

Norwich 2+ goals

39%

Norwich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

53%

Norwich (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 24 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.42 + Norwich defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Norwich attack 1.20 + Plymouth defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Plymouth scores more

39%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

35%

Plymouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Hardie

Plymouth · F

8.2

Match Events

24'

R. Hardie↳ A. Randell

29'

R. Hardie↳ M. Bundu

46'

J. Wright← J. Stacey

46'

A. Ben Slimane← M. Núñez

46'

J. Sargent↳ K. Fisher

63'

C. Wright← M. Obafemi

63'

D. Gyabi← J. Houghton

69'

O. Schwartau← E. Marcondes

77'

V. Pálsson← N. Katić

77'

O. Hernández← K. Fisher

77'

R. McConville← J. Córdoba

89'

F. Issaka← R. Hardie

89'

J. Edwards← M. Sorinola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthNorwich

Overview

25%Possession75%

8Total Shots9

1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.14

2Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots9

4On Target4

3Off Target1

1Blocked4

7Inside Box5

1Outside Box4

Passing

25%Possession75%

175Total Passes538

99Accurate Passes442

57%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Offsides4