Norwich 6–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Plymouth

A. Crnac 82'

A. Ben Slimane 80'

Borja Sainz 72', 17', 2'

S. Duffy 51'

M. Bundu 39'

11/26/2024

Championship · Round 17Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Norwich55%

×Draw24%

Plymouth21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.97

Norwich

1.73

Plymouth

0.97

Norwich creates 78% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 23 away

1.53

creates per match

0.66

1.28

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Norwich

1.53

Plymouth

0.66

allows per match

Norwich

1.28

Plymouth

1.93

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Norwich+0.22scores more

Plymouth-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

79%

Norwich or Plymouth

76%

Draw or Plymouth

45%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

31%

Plymouth wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

82%

Norwich 2+ goals

52%

Norwich 3+ goals

25%

Plymouth 1+ goals

62%

Plymouth 2+ goals

25%

Plymouth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

72%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 52 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.93 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.53 + Plymouth defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Plymouth attack 0.66 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norwich scores more

55%

level

24%

Plymouth scores more

21%

Norwich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Borja Sainz

Norwich · F

9.9

Match Events

2'

Borja Sainz

17'

Borja Sainz↳ E. Marcondes

38'

Matthew Sorinola

39'

M. Bundu↳ A. Gray

51'

S. Duffy↳ E. Marcondes

62'

A. Ben Slimane← J. Sørensen

62'

L. Gibbs← A. Forson

62'

F. Issaka← M. Bundu

62'

M. Obafemi← M. Sorinola

70'

R. Al Hajj← C. Wright

70'

A. Forshaw← D. Gyabi

71'

O. Schwartau← L. Gibbs

72'

Borja Sainz↳ J. Stacey

80'

A. Ben Slimane↳ J. Stacey

81'

C. Roberts← A. Gray

82'

A. Crnac

83'

A. Barnes← Borja Sainz

83'

B. Hills← B. Chrisene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichPlymouth

Overview

73%Possession27%

19Total Shots13

3.15Expected Goals (xG)0.62

8Corners4

11Fouls5

Shots

19Total Shots13

10On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked3

13Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

73%Possession27%

729Total Passes270

665Accurate Passes205

91%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-1.57Goals Prevented-1.57

Discipline

11Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1