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Plymouth vs Morecambe — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
R. Hardie 43'
C. Grant 14'
3/5/2022League OneLeague One · Round 37Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Plymouth56%
×Draw23%
Morecambe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.86
Morecambe
1.06

Plymouth creates 75% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 46 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.55
Morecambe
0.89

allows per match

Plymouth
1.24
Morecambe
2.17

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
79%
Plymouth or Morecambe
77%
Draw or Morecambe
44%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
32%
Morecambe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
84%
Plymouth 2+ goals
55%
Plymouth 3+ goals
28%
Morecambe 1+ goals
65%
Morecambe 2+ goals
29%
Morecambe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
72%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.86

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Plymouth scores more
56%
level
23%
Morecambe scores more
21%

Plymouth at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. CooperPlymouthPlymouth · G
8.0

Match Events

14'
C. Grant↳ R. Broom
34'
Dylan Connolly
43'
R. Hardie↳ D. Mayor
59'
Anthony O'Connor
60'
J. Obika← C. Stockton
66'
N. Ennis← L. Jephcott
80'
J. Garrick← R. Hardie
83'
A. Randell← J. Houghton
89'
J. Ayunga← D. Connolly

Possession

67%Plymouth

Shots

11Plymouth

Pass accuracy

53%Plymouth

Statistics

PlymouthMorecambe
Overview
67%Possession33%
11Total Shots9
7Corners3
5Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target4
4Off Target5
3Blocked0
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
631Total Passes309
536Accurate Passes228
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League One: Plymouth 2–0 Morecambe

Plymouth beat Morecambe 2-0 in League One on March 5, 2022.

Goals: C. Grant (14'), R. Hardie (43').

Plymouth controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.