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Morecambe vs Plymouth — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
CANC
00:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
3/14/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Morecambe32%
×Draw27%
Plymouth41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.14
Plymouth
1.33

Plymouth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.24
Plymouth
1.33

allows per match

Morecambe
1.34
Plymouth
1.04

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
59%
Morecambe or Plymouth
73%
Draw or Plymouth
68%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
13%
Plymouth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
68%
Morecambe 2+ goals
32%
Morecambe 3+ goals
11%
Plymouth 1+ goals
74%
Plymouth 2+ goals
38%
Plymouth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
44%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Morecambe scores more
32%
level
27%
Plymouth scores more
41%

Plymouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Morecambe host Plymouth

March 14, 2020: Morecambe take on Plymouth in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Morecambe host Plymouth at Globe Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.