Plymouth 3–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League Two

Plymouth

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

C. Grant 90+1'

A. Sarcevic 45+2' (pen)

G. Cooper 44'

12/14/2019

League Two · Round 21Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Plymouth56%

×Draw23%

Morecambe21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.01

Plymouth

1.79

Morecambe

1.01

Plymouth creates 77% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 93 away

1.85

creates per match

1.17

0.85

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Plymouth

1.85

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Plymouth

0.85

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

79%

Plymouth or Morecambe

77%

Draw or Morecambe

44%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

31%

Morecambe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth 2+ goals

53%

Plymouth 3+ goals

26%

Morecambe 1+ goals

64%

Morecambe 2+ goals

27%

Morecambe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

72%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.85 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Plymouth defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Plymouth scores more

56%

level

23%

Morecambe scores more

21%

Plymouth at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

G. Cooper

Plymouth · D

9.0

Match Events

9'

19'

42'

44'

45+2'

A. SarcevicPenalty

67'

Z. Rudden← Joel Grant

72'

C. Grant← A. Sarcevic

78'

J. Cranston← L. Alessandra

82'

B. Clarke← D. Telford

82'

C. Stockton← A. Leitch-Smith

86'

K. Ellison← Carlos Gomes

90+1'

C. Grant↳ G. Cooper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthMorecambe

Overview

73%Possession27%

22Total Shots4

13Corners0

5Fouls7

Shots

22Total Shots4

6On Target1

9Off Target3

7Blocked0

12Inside Box2

10Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

538Total Passes215

463Accurate Passes119

86%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1