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Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
19:45
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
12/29/2026League OneLeague One · Round 22Home Park
Big match
42%
Plymouth
model favours
42%26%33%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Plymouth42%
×Draw26%
Milton Keynes Dons33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.46
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

Plymouth creates 15% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 95 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.53
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Plymouth
1.26
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
67%
Plymouth or Milton Keynes Dons
74%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
58%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
20%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
77%
Plymouth 2+ goals
43%
Plymouth 3+ goals
18%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
72%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
36%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
56%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 115 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.53 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Plymouth defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plymouth scores more
42%
level
26%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
33%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 13 games running
  • Plymouth have won 3 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 27% of matches
  • Milton Keynes Dons win just 25% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)
  • 73% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Plymouth’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Milton Keynes Dons
Balanced
48%PossessionBiggest gap57%
66%Pass accuracy76%
14.4Shots12.3
2.31xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthMilton Keynes Dons

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Milton Keynes Dons
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 57%
1–03–14–10–51–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWDW
Dons
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth face Milton Keynes Dons (League One)

League One returns with Plymouth hosting Milton Keynes Dons. Match starts December 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Plymouth host Milton Keynes Dons at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.