Plymouth 3–1 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

M. Whittaker 53'

N. Ennis 37'

J. Wilson 4'

N. Holland 19'

1/1/2023

League One · Round 25Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Plymouth42%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.27

Plymouth

1.46

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Plymouth creates 15% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 95 away

1.53

creates per match

1.27

1.26

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Plymouth

1.53

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Plymouth

1.26

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

67%

Plymouth or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

58%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

20%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

77%

Plymouth 2+ goals

43%

Plymouth 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

56%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 115 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.53 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Plymouth defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plymouth scores more

42%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

33%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Whittaker

Plymouth · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

J. Wilson↳ M. Whittaker

19'

N. Holland

37'

N. Ennis↳ M. Whittaker

46'

R. Hardie← N. Ennis

49'

Jack Tucker

53'

M. Whittaker↳ R. Hardie

61'

M. Butcher← J. Houghton

61'

M. Dennis← N. Holland

70'

J. Endacott← D. Mayor

70'

J. McEachran← D. Devoy

70'

M. Smith← E. Robson

86'

W. Grigg← L. Barry

86'

T. Watson← H. Lawrence

89'

S. Cosgrove← M. Whittaker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthMilton

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots10

1Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots10

6On Target4

2Off Target3

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

460Total Passes458

370Accurate Passes355

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2