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Milton Keynes Dons vs Plymouth — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
R. Hardie 68'
8/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons12%
×Draw15%
Plymouth72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.07
Plymouth
2.77

Plymouth creates 159% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Plymouth
3.25

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
2.29
Plymouth
1.00

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
28%
Milton Keynes Dons or Plymouth
85%
Draw or Plymouth
88%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
4%
Plymouth wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
66%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
29%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
9%
Plymouth 1+ goals
94%
Plymouth 2+ goals
76%
Plymouth 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
15%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Plymouth away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.14 + Plymouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Plymouth attack 3.25 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
12%
level
15%
Plymouth scores more
72%

Plymouth at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
L. Maguire← N. Lawrence
61'
C. Tripp← T. Carroll
61'
L. Offord← A. Wood
68'
N. Ogbeta← B. Mumba
68'
R. Hardie← R. Hardie
68'
J. Houghton← A. Forshaw
68'
R. Hardie
70'
L. Kelly← M. Dennis
70'
S. Wearne← M. Williams
70'
C. Hendry← T. Leigh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Plymouth

Plymouth beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 3, 2024.

Goals: R. Hardie (68').

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.