Plymouth 0–2 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Plymouth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

3/2/2024

Championship · Round 35Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plymouth32%

×Draw26%

Ipswich42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.44

Plymouth

1.22

Ipswich

1.44

Ipswich creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

1.28

creates per match

1.47

1.42

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Plymouth

1.28

Ipswich

1.47

allows per match

Plymouth

1.42

Ipswich

1.16

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth+0.39scores more

Ipswich+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

58%

Plymouth or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

68%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

13%

Ipswich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

70%

Plymouth 2+ goals

34%

Plymouth 3+ goals

12%

Ipswich 1+ goals

76%

Ipswich 2+ goals

42%

Ipswich 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

43%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.28 + Ipswich defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ipswich attack 1.47 + Plymouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plymouth scores more

32%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

42%

Ipswich at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff