Plymouth 2–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

9/25/2022

League One · Round 11Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Plymouth37%

×Draw27%

Ipswich36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.28

Plymouth

1.29

Ipswich

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 88 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

1.26

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Plymouth

1.53

Ipswich

1.30

allows per match

Plymouth

1.26

Ipswich

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

64%

Plymouth or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

63%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

16%

Ipswich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

72%

Plymouth 2+ goals

37%

Plymouth 3+ goals

14%

Ipswich 1+ goals

72%

Ipswich 2+ goals

37%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

50%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 115 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.53 + Ipswich defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ipswich attack 1.30 + Plymouth defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Plymouth scores more

37%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

36%

Plymouth at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff