Plymouth 1–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

A. Sarcevic 57'

8/10/2019

League Two · Round 2Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Plymouth53%

×Draw25%

Colchester22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.91

Plymouth

1.59

Colchester

0.91

Plymouth creates 75% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 159 away

1.85

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Plymouth

1.85

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Plymouth

0.85

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

78%

Plymouth or Colchester

75%

Draw or Colchester

47%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

28%

Colchester wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

80%

Plymouth 2+ goals

47%

Plymouth 3+ goals

21%

Colchester 1+ goals

60%

Colchester 2+ goals

23%

Colchester 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

71%

Colchester (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.85 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Colchester attack 0.96 + Plymouth defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plymouth scores more

53%

level

25%

Colchester scores more

22%

Plymouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Sarcevic

27'

B. Stevenson

34'

D. Telford← Joel Grant

57'

A. Sarcevic↳ D. Telford

64'

L. Gambin← C. Senior

71'

J. Baxter← J. Edwards

75'

R. Taylor← B. Moore

77'

R. Jackson← C. Bramall

86'

A. Hasanally← T. Lapslie

Plymouth

Colchester

1

5

18

22

3

▼

Bramall

10

Brown

4

▼

Lapslie

7

▼

24

45

9

24

3

8

▼

6

5

2

16

▼

Grant

10

Mayor

7

⚽

Sarcevic

17

▼

Moore

21

McFadzean

Manager: R. Lowe

34'▲D. Telford←▼Joel Grant

71'▲J. Baxter←▼J. Edwards

75'▲R. Taylor←▼B. Moore

Plymouth substitutes

11Telford14Baxter9Taylor1Cooper25Grant20Randell15Grant

Manager: J. McGreal

64'▲L. Gambin←▼C. Senior

77'▲R. Jackson←▼C. Bramall

86'▲A. Hasanally←▼T. Lapslie

Colchester substitutes

26Gambin2Jackson37Hasanally29Ross27Chilvers14Comley19Kensdale