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Colchester vs Plymouth — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
T. Robinson 36', 30'
B. Stevenson 14'
2/8/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 32JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Colchester35%
×Draw28%
Plymouth37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.18
Plymouth
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 161 home / 24 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Plymouth
1.33

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Plymouth
1.04

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
63%
Colchester or Plymouth
72%
Draw or Plymouth
65%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
15%
Plymouth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
69%
Colchester 2+ goals
33%
Colchester 3+ goals
12%
Plymouth 1+ goals
70%
Plymouth 2+ goals
34%
Plymouth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
49%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Colchester scores more
35%
level
28%
Plymouth scores more
37%

Plymouth at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
T. RobinsonColchesterColchester · F
8.7

Match Events

14'
B. Stevenson↳ C. Harriott
30'
T. Robinson
36'
T. Robinson↳ H. Pell
39'
George Cooper
46'
R. Taylor← R. Hardie
46'
C. McFadzean← G. Cooper
61'
Tom Eastman
65'
Joel Grant← L. Jephcott
79'
L. Gambin← H. Pell
82'
C. Senior← C. Harriott
85'
L. Norris← T. Robinson

Possession

46%Colchester

Shots

16Colchester

Pass accuracy

48%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterPlymouth
Overview
46%Possession54%
16Total Shots11
6Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots11
9On Target4
4Off Target5
3Blocked2
11Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
338Total Passes395
222Accurate Passes283
66%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Colchester vs Plymouth

Colchester beat Plymouth 3-0 in League Two on February 8, 2020.

Goals: B. Stevenson (14'), T. Robinson (30', 36').

Plymouth controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.