Plymouth 1–0 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

K. Agard 45+2'

12/18/2021

League One · Round 23Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Plymouth41%

×Draw26%

Charlton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Plymouth

1.40

Charlton

1.23

Plymouth creates 14% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 143 away

1.55

creates per match

1.22

1.24

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

67%

Plymouth or Charlton

74%

Draw or Charlton

59%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

19%

Charlton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

75%

Plymouth 2+ goals

41%

Plymouth 3+ goals

17%

Charlton 1+ goals

71%

Charlton 2+ goals

35%

Charlton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

55%

Charlton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Charlton attack 1.22 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Plymouth scores more

41%

level

26%

Charlton scores more

33%

Plymouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Cooper

Plymouth · G

7.3

Match Events

26'

45+2'

63'

68'

73'

77'

82'

90'

90+2'

L. Jephcott← R. Hardie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthCharlton

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots8

1Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box1

Passing

41%Possession59%

271Total Passes399

175Accurate Passes299

65%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2