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Charlton vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
C. Washington 84'
B. Purrington 61'
11/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 18The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Charlton45%
×Draw25%
Plymouth31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.57
Plymouth
1.26

Charlton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 114 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Plymouth
1.39

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Plymouth
1.50

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Plymouth
75%
Draw or Plymouth
55%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
22%
Plymouth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
79%
Charlton 2+ goals
46%
Charlton 3+ goals
21%
Plymouth 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth 2+ goals
36%
Plymouth 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
59%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charlton scores more
45%
level
25%
Plymouth scores more
31%

Charlton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
C. WashingtonCharltonCharlton · F
7.9

Match Events

21'
Macauley Gillesphey
26'
George Dobson
51'
Ryan Broom
55'
C. Gunter← J. Pearce
61'
B. Purrington↳ G. Dobson
70'
L. Jephcott← R. Hardie
71'
D. Mayor← R. Broom
77'
M. Burstow← J. Davison
83'
C. Blackett-Taylor← D. Jaiyesimi
84'
C. Washington↳ E. Lee
87'
G. Cooper← J. Edwards

Possession

37%Charlton

Shots

14Charlton

Pass accuracy

46%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonPlymouth
Overview
37%Possession63%
14Total Shots8
11Corners5
7Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots8
5On Target3
6Off Target3
3Blocked2
12Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
300Total Passes536
206Accurate Passes430
69%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Charlton vs Plymouth

Charlton beat Plymouth 2-0 in League One on November 20, 2021.

Goals: B. Purrington (61'), C. Washington (84').

Plymouth controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Valley in London.