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Plymouth vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
15:00
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
1/23/2027League OneLeague One · Round 27Home Park
Big match
52%
Plymouth
model favours
52%24%24%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Plymouth52%
×Draw24%
Cambridge United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.67
Cambridge United
1.06

Plymouth creates 58% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 92 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.55
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Plymouth
1.24
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
76%
Plymouth or Cambridge United
76%
Draw or Cambridge United
48%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
28%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
81%
Plymouth 2+ goals
50%
Plymouth 3+ goals
23%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
65%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
29%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
68%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Plymouth scores more
52%
level
24%
Cambridge United scores more
24%

Plymouth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Style contrast — Plymouth play Attack-heavy, Cambridge United Direct / counter-attacking
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Cambridge United
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession43%
68%Pass accuracy65%
13.4ShotsBiggest gap10.9
2.12xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthCambridge United

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Plymouth
3
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 33%
3–10–00–21–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
United
WWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth vs Cambridge United — Match Preview

Plymouth face Cambridge United on January 23, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plymouth host Cambridge United at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.