Plymouth 0–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

2/22/2020

League Two · Round 35Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Plymouth47%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.03

Plymouth

1.46

Cambridge United

1.03

Plymouth creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 68 away

1.85

creates per match

1.22

0.85

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Plymouth

1.85

Cambridge United

1.22

allows per match

Plymouth

0.85

Cambridge United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

73%

Plymouth or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

53%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

23%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

77%

Plymouth 2+ goals

43%

Plymouth 3+ goals

18%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

64%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

28%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

64%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.85 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Plymouth defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Plymouth scores more

47%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

27%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Mayor

Plymouth · M

7.5

Match Events

37'

S. Carruthers← P. Lewis

44'

Samir Carruthers

51'

R. Lambe← L. ONeil

62'

D. Telford← L. Jephcott

71'

R. Hardie← J. Edwards

71'

G. Cooper← C. McFadzean

72'

H. Knibbs← P. Mullin

80'

George Maris

87'

Gary Sawyer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthCambridge

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots8

5Corners0

10Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots8

1On Target0

4Off Target6

9Blocked2

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

559Total Passes336

433Accurate Passes207

77%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3