Cambridge United 2–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Plymouth

J. Lankester 42'

S. Smith 5'

2/22/2022

League One · Round 35Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United37%

×Draw26%

Plymouth37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

Cambridge United

1.29

Plymouth

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 114 away

1.08

creates per match

1.39

1.22

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

63%

Cambridge United or Plymouth

74%

Draw or Plymouth

63%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

16%

Plymouth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

72%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

37%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

14%

Plymouth 1+ goals

73%

Plymouth 2+ goals

37%

Plymouth 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

50%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambridge United scores more

37%

level

26%

Plymouth scores more

37%

Cambridge United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Lankester

Cambridge United · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

42'

43'

52'

56'

R. Hardie← L. Jephcott

57'

Jubril Okedina

61'

George Williams

69'

B. Worman← L. ONeil

69'

S. Sessegnon← R. Broom

79'

S. Tracey← J. Lankester

80'

J. Garrick← J. Bolton

86'

H. Dunk← L. Bennett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgePlymouth

Overview

32%Possession68%

14Total Shots9

8Corners7

6Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target1

4Off Target3

2Blocked5

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

273Total Passes579

170Accurate Passes451

62%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1