Plymouth 0–5 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Plymouth

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 5

Burnley

J. Cullen 45+2'

J. Laurent 45', 34'

Z. Flemming 31', 11'

1/22/2025

Championship · Round 28Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Plymouth30%

×Draw27%

Burnley43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.40

Plymouth

1.13

Burnley

1.40

Burnley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

1.28

1.52

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Plymouth

1.40

Burnley

1.28

allows per match

Plymouth

1.52

Burnley

0.86

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth+0.64scores more

Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

57%

Plymouth or Burnley

73%

Draw or Burnley

70%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

12%

Burnley wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

68%

Plymouth 2+ goals

31%

Plymouth 3+ goals

11%

Burnley 1+ goals

75%

Burnley 2+ goals

41%

Burnley 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

41%

Burnley (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.40 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Burnley attack 1.28 + Plymouth defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plymouth scores more

30%

level

27%

Burnley scores more

43%

Burnley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Laurent

Burnley · M

8.9

Match Events

11'

Z. Flemming↳ J. Brownhill

31'

Z. Flemming

34'

J. Laurent↳ C. Roberts

45'

J. Laurent↳ L. Foster

45+2'

J. Cullen

46'

M. Sorinola← N. Ogbeta

46'

M. Bundu← R. Hardie

46'

C. Wright← R. Al Hajj

69'

L. Koleosho← J. Anthony

69'

J. Sarmiento← J. Brownhill

70'

J. Houghton← A. Randell

77'

J. Rodríguez← Z. Flemming

77'

H. Mejbri← L. Foster

82'

T. Finn← M. Baidoo

85'

J. Worrall← C. Egan-Riley

87'

Matthew Sorinola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthBurnley

Overview

39%Possession61%

4Total Shots17

0.38Expected Goals (xG)2.69

1Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

4Total Shots17

1On Target9

2Off Target4

1Blocked4

3Inside Box14

1Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

328Total Passes512

249Accurate Passes421

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.04Goals Prevented0.04

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides1